Stable at the County Level. Not Stable Anywhere Else.
The regional report for August described home prices in Alameda and Contra Costa counties as relatively stable. I read that line twice. Not because it's wrong, exactly. Because it's the kind of word that only makes sense if you never look past the county line.
Piedmont's sales count went from 1 to 9 in a single year. Berkeley's median jumped more than a quarter. Kensington's dropped by more than a third. None of that is stable. It's just what stable looks like once you average enough different stories into one number.
What "Stable" Was Covering Up
Across the seven inner communities combined, the median sale price rose 13.9% in August, to $1,230,000, with an average list to sale ratio of 116%. That's not a market holding steady. That's a market moving, just not all in the same direction at the same speed.
Piedmont led the swing. Nine homes sold in August compared to a single sale the year before, a jump too large to read as anything but a genuinely different month, with a median near $2,780,000 and a list to sale ratio of 136%. Berkeley wasn't far behind, its median climbing to $1,792,900 and its list to sale ratio holding at 133%, a city still absorbing serious buyer competition. El Cerrito's sales rose 62.5%, though its median actually pulled back 14.7%, a reminder that volume and price don't always move together even within the same town.
Inner East Bay: Selective, Not Slower
Total sales across the inner communities dipped 3.9%, but that headline hides the more interesting detail underneath. Oakland's sales fell 15.7%, yet its median still rose 19.2%, to $1,022,500. Albany's sales dropped a third, with its median up nearly 11%. Fewer transactions did not mean softer pricing in either town. It meant a smaller, more decisive group of buyers were still willing to compete for the homes that did come to market.
That's a different kind of inner East Bay story than earlier this year, when volume and price were mostly moving together. August looks more selective. Buyers who are active are still competing hard. There are just fewer of them showing up to do it.
The Outer Corridor Holds Its Prices Through Fewer Sales
The outer communities followed a similar pattern. Combined sales fell 5.2%, but the combined median rose 9.5%, to $1,790,000. Orinda's sales dropped 23.5%, yet its median rose 21.4%, to $1,790,000. Moraga saw its sales jump 83.3%, a sharp move for a small market, with its median up 8.3% as well, one of the few outer towns where volume and price climbed together this month. Danville and Lafayette both posted modest sales gains with medians holding close to flat, steady rather than dramatic. Pleasant Hill and Walnut Creek both saw sales pull back, 40% and 14.3% respectively, though Walnut Creek's median barely moved, essentially flat year over year.
List to sale ratios across the outer corridor stayed close to 100% almost everywhere, Danville at 97%, the rest clustered right around asking price. Buyers out there aren't chasing homes the way inner East Bay buyers sometimes are. They're negotiating calmly, and sellers who price accurately are still finding them.
What This Means Heading Into Fall
If you're selling in Berkeley or Piedmont, August's numbers say the competitive energy from earlier this year hasn't gone anywhere. These are still markets where a well-prepared home draws real attention.
If you're buying anywhere in the outer corridor, list to sale ratios sitting near 100% mean there's still room to negotiate. That hasn't changed much in months, and it's worth taking advantage of while it holds.
Bottom Line
Stable was never really the right word for August - selective is closer. Buyers pulled back in number almost everywhere, inner and outer alike, but the ones who stayed in the game kept paying real prices for the homes they wanted. The county report saw an average and the towns underneath it were each telling their own, considerably less quiet, story.
- Alex
