February 2026: Balance — But Not Uniformly
Inner East Bay: Demand Holds, But Not Every City Moves the Same
When I look at the Inner East Bay numbers this month, the story isn’t a surge - it’s selective strength. Berkeley remains steady and competitive: 21 homes sold (up 40% year-over-year) with a median price of $1.575M and an average sale at 118% of list price, which reflects the same over-ask culture we continue to see locally. Alameda also showed strong activity, with sales up 55.6% and pricing up 7.3%.
Oakland tells a different story. Sales volume barely moved (+1.1%), but the median price dropped to $700K, down 12.5% from last year. That shift reinforces what many of us on the ground already feel - demand is still there, but buyers are more price-aware and selective.
Piedmont and El Cerrito both saw notable swings. Piedmont’s median price declined sharply year-over-year to $3.35M, though sample size here is perhaps skewing the numbers. El Cerrito, meanwhile, experienced fewer sales but stronger pricing, with the median jumping nearly 15%.
Overall, the Inner East Bay recorded 134 sales, up 3.9%, with a median price of $935K, modest growth that feels steady rather than aggressive.
Outer East Bay: Volume Up, Pricing More Mixed
Across the Lamorinda and Walnut Creek corridor, activity increased but pricing softened in several cities. Orinda stood out with a major jump in sales volume, up 225% (though here too, the sample size is a possible factor), alongside a 7.7% increase in median price to $2.1M. Moraga also saw meaningful gains, with prices up 17.6% and homes selling at 108% of list on average.
Lafayette and Walnut Creek remained active but slightly cooler in pricing. Walnut Creek’s median price was essentially flat year-over-year, and Danville slipped modestly by about 3%.
In total, the Outer East Bay logged 62 sales (up 10.7%), yet the median price edged down 1.8% to $1.8M, a reminder that higher inventory pockets and buyer sensitivity to rates are shaping outcomes.
What I’m Seeing Behind the Numbers
The data suggests a market moving toward balance rather than retreat. Inner East Bay locations, especially Berkeley, continue to attract competitive buyers, reflected in stronger list-to-sale ratios. But the broader East Bay shows a widening spread between cities: some seeing price growth, others stabilizing or adjusting.
For me, the takeaway isn’t that demand has weakened - it’s that expectations are resetting. Well-prepared homes still perform. Overpricing stands out quickly. And buyers are watching value much more closely than they were a year or two ago.
The Bigger Picture
Inventory remains tight enough to support pricing, but not so scarce that every home sells instantly. Wage growth, continued investment in tech and AI, and a relatively stable regional job market are still providing a floor under housing demand, even as mortgage rates keep many buyers cautious.
Rick and I felt this shift firsthand recently near Skyline Blvd in Oakland. The home wasn’t updated - more classic than modern - built with real quality: oak cabinetry, pristine maple floors, dual pane windows, solid doors, and top-grade hardware. It received two preemptive offers in just 4 days and sold well over asking. To me, that’s a warming signal. Areas and property types that underperformed over the past couple of years are starting to draw attention again. Buyers aren’t only chasing perfection, they’re rediscovering value, confidence, and opportunity.
If early 2026 continues along this path, I expect the East Bay to feel more balanced: fewer extremes, more negotiation, and outcomes driven heavily by preparation, pricing, and location.
-Alex
