Investment Surges, Inventory Tightens, Demand Holds
Capital at Work: Tech & VC Driving Activity
October brought the usual uptick before the holiday lull — and it revealed a strong undercurrent of economic activity. While tech layoffs and the federal government shutdown have added uncertainty, there’s clear momentum: more than $140 billion in venture capital flowed into the Bay Area in the first nine months of 2025 — 42 % more than all of 2024 combined. This surge is anchored in AI and other innovation-driven sectors, which continue to underpin demand for homes across the East Bay.
Shrinking Supply, Steady Buyer Interest
After months of growing inventory, listings dipped sharply in October. Across the Bay Area, active homes on the market fell 11 % month-to-month, with every county registering declines. In the Inner East Bay (Oakland, Berkeley, Piedmont etc.) we saw 316 sales, down 5.2 % year-over-year — yet competition stayed very strong. Meanwhile, in the Outer East Bay (Orinda, Lafayette, Danville, etc..) 160 homes sold, up 2.6 %, showing that buyers are still moving when the value is clear.
Inner East Bay: Prices Up, Competition Strong
In the Inner East Bay the median sales price hit $1.3 million, up 8.3 % year-over-year, and the average sale came in at 113% of list, up 2.7 %. That dynamic tells us the classic story: when supply is tight and location is strong, buyers step up. Even with a modest drop in transaction volume, the value equation remains intact — homes that check the right boxes are still being claimed aggressively, though competition remain down from the highs of 2021 and 2022.
Outer East Bay: Activity Rising, Prices Adjusting
In the Outer East Bay the median price is $1.6 million, down 10.1 % year-over-year, and the average list-to-sale ratio sits at 99%, down about 1.0%. Despite the pullback in price, transaction volume increased — signalling that buyers are back, but likely more selective. Present a home that’s well-positioned, and you’ll move it. Overprice, or miss the value mark, and it lingers.
Faster Sales, More Above-Asking Offers
Across the Bay Area, homes sold in an average of 35 days, three days faster than last month. Nearly half of all sales closed above the list price, underscoring that when homes are priced and marketed right, buyers don’t wait. In the East Bay it remains a market of “act now if you like it,” which puts a premium on readiness and presentation.
Policy Winds: What’s Changing in the Backdrop
Beyond the data, there’s a quiet transformation happening in how the Bay Area thinks about housing.
Berkeley recently voted to eliminate single-family zoning. It’s a major cultural and political shift for a city that invented single-family zoning more than a century ago.
Meanwhile, SB 79, signed into law this fall, will make it easier to build housing near major transit hubs starting next summer — particularly along BART which could reshape how we think about density and accessibility.
Such policies signal a new phase for East Bay housing: one that emphasizes flexibility, transit access, and supply — all themes that will shape our neighborhoods for years to come. For homeowners and buyers alike, it’s worth watching how this next chapter unfolds.
Finish Line in Sight
As we move into the winter season the pace will slow — that’s typical. But with investment strong, supply dipping, and policy gears shifting, the East Bay remains well-positioned. If mortgage rates ease, that could ignite that next phase. Buyers and sellers who are tuned-in now will have an advantage as we head into what may be a busy early 2026.
-Alex
