I’ve been reflecting on what 2025 brought—and what may lie ahead. The season naturally brings a pause, not just in our calendars but in the housing market as well. November offered a clear snapshot of where things stand across the East Bay as we move toward the new year.

A Predictable Seasonal Pause, With Pockets of Resilience

November slowed, as it usually does once the fall rush passes. That said, the slowdown wasn’t uniform. In the inner East Bay, year-over-year sales volume actually rose, driven largely by Berkeley and supported by Oakland’s steadier pace of absorption. Median pricing softened across much of the region, though that had more to do with which homes sold than any broad reset in values.

Berkeley stood out. More homes closed, prices edged higher, and competition didn’t fade much at all. Well-located, well-prepared homes continued to move decisively, reinforcing a theme we’ve seen all year: quality still commands attention.

Inventory Improves, Though Supply Remains Constrained

Buyers had more options than they did a year ago—particularly in the outer East Bay—but inventory remains thin by historical standards. This is especially true closer in, where demand continues to be durable.

That thinness shows up in uneven data. In places like Piedmont and Kensington, there simply aren’t many transactions to analyze. But when the right home comes to market, it doesn’t linger. Scarcity still matters.

Transaction Volume Slips, With Clear Geographic Splits

The gap between inner and outer East Bay performance became more pronounced in November. Inner East Bay sales declined meaningfully year over year once Kensington is removed as a statistical outlier. The outer East Bay slipped more modestly.

Oakland closed fewer homes than last November, yet this month marked a shift: properties priced appropriately were again attracting competition—quite different from just two months earlier, when many Oakland listings took three to six weeks to find their footing. Further east, results varied. Walnut Creek and Lafayette posted gains, while Danville, Moraga, and Pleasant Hill slowed. Pricing in these markets has remained relatively stable, suggesting buyers are still engaged, but more selective and increasingly rate-conscious.

Pricing and Competition Are Hyper-Local

There’s no single headline that fits the East Bay right now.

Berkeley and Alameda posted year-over-year price gains. Oakland and Piedmont moved lower, largely because a greater share of lower-priced homes closed during the month. That distinction matters. In many neighborhoods, competition is still real for homes that check the right boxes. Others sit longer—not because demand disappeared, but because buyers have learned to wait.

2025: What Stood Out

Looking back across the year, a few themes are hard to ignore:

• Despite modest improvement from 2024, home affordability remained near historic lows.
  
  
• Year-over-year prices were flat to slightly down across most East Bay markets.
  
  
• Homes listed under $1M experienced the longest days on market and the fewest sales over list price—driven in part by the lagging condo market and a larger supply of inventory in this segment.
  
  
• Compass agents continued to lead the market, posting the brand’s second-highest market share on record.

This was not a market defined by momentum. It was defined by preparation, patience, and realism—on both sides of the transaction.

Five Questions as We Look Toward 2026

As we head into the new year, several open questions will shape how the market evolves:

• Will mortgage rates finally fall below 6%?
  
  
• Will strong stock positions continue to support higher-end sales?
  
  
• Could changes in the insurance industry help stabilize pricing and calm buyer hesitation?
  
  
• Will job insecurity or rising unemployment become a more meaningful local factor?
  
  
• And how will San Francisco’s market evolve, given that sold prices there are up 10.5% year over year in November, compared to a 4% decline locally?
  
  

A Market Moving Gradually Toward Balance

This is a calmer market, not a weak one. Buyers have more time. Sellers face more competition. Neither side holds all the leverage.

Even modest movement in interest rates could change the tone quickly—particularly in the outer East Bay and in the sub-$1M segment. For now, outcomes are being shaped less by urgency and more by execution. Homes that stand out still sell. The rest tend to ask harder questions of their sellers.

-Alex