Momentum Returns

This summer, the East Bay market outpaced the national trend. After last year’s modest dip, job growth across the Bay Area brought welcome stability—nearly 8,000 jobs were added, keeping unemployment in the mid-4% range. That steadiness has translated into a bit of renewed buyer confidence. On the ground, more buyers are stepping forward despite current rates, aware that if rates move much lower, competition will only intensify.

Less Choices, Still Tight

In the East Bay, buyers continue to face fewer options. Active listings in August were down 13% year-over-year, leaving inventory at less than two months of supply—compared to more than four months nationally. The result is that even with some homes lingering on the market, the overall pool feels tight, particularly in the Inner East Bay.

Many sellers remain on the sidelines, not simply because of mortgage rates but due to a broader hesitation: low consumer confidence, uncertainty about timing, and the challenge of giving up a home that “works well enough” in a market with few appealing trade-ups.  A home with good light, a functional yard, and thoughtful updates can spark bidding wars—even as less turnkey homes stall.

Further east, in Orinda, Lafayette, and Walnut Creek, the same lean inventory plays out differently: larger suburban properties are slow to replenish, so families chasing yard space or newer construction find themselves with slim pickings. That imbalance helps explain why desirable homes, when priced correctly, can still sell briskly despite a more cautious mood among buyers.

Competition in Prime Neighborhoods

Even with less inventory overall, prime East Bay homes are still highly competitive. More than half of August sales closed above asking. Days on market averaged around 30, but in neighborhoods like Rockridge, and Lamorinda, and certainly in Berkeley well-priced homes often sold even faster. The takeaway hasn’t changed: thoughtful preparation and smart pricing are what separate listings that sell quickly from those that linger.

Ahead of Us

As we move into fall, a traditionally slower season, the East Bay is likely to remain resilient. Return-to-office requirements are keeping demand close to job centers, and any future rate cuts could bring more buyers off the sidelines - though if you speak to lenders they will likely tell you mortgage rates have already dropped. Even with broader economic uncertainty, the fundamentals here are intact—limited supply, steady demand, and a strong appetite for single-family homes in the right locations.

-Alex