A YEAR OF MOVEMENT - and SELECTIVITY

If there was a single theme to the East Bay housing market in 2025, it was engagement without excess. Buyers didn’t rush, sellers didn’t overreach as often, and the market moved forward in a way that felt more deliberate than dramatic. December’s numbers, in particular, capture that tone well - activity was there, but it showed up unevenly and with purpose.

Across the East Bay, homes continued to trade hands at a healthy pace, even as higher mortgage rates kept affordability front and center. What changed was how selectively buyers moved - and where.

Inner vs. Outer East Bay: Two Different Rhythms in December

In the entire inner East Bay there were 236 sales in December, slightly fewer than 12 months before. But that headline masks what was actually happening. 

Berkeley, El Cerrito, Kensington, Albany, and Piedmont all saw noticeable increases in activity. These markets benefited from limited supply, strong neighborhood identity, and buyers willing to compete when the home felt right.

By contrast, Oakland remained the overall volume driver but cooled meaningfully, with sales down nearly 20% year over year. Affordability mattered more here, and buyers were quicker to pause when list pricing felt too aggressive or home condition meant significant work was in store.

In the outer East Bay, activity moved in the opposite direction. December sales rose to 118 homes, up more than 9% from a year ago. Danville and Walnut Creek stayed steady, Lafayette pushed pricing higher, and Moraga and Orinda rebounded from very low 2024 volumes. Pleasant Hill softened, reflecting a buyer pool that became more value-conscious as the year progressed.

Pricing Held But for Different Reasons

What’s striking about 2025 is how well pricing held overall, even as the paths diverged.

In the inner East Bay, the median sale price ended December at $1,065,000, up nearly 4% from last year. Berkeley continued to do what Berkeley does - strong demand for well-located homes, steady competition, and prices that rose even in a higher-rate environment. Piedmont stood out, with double-digit growth, driven by scarcity more than speculation. Oakland’s median price declined, but largely because more lower-priced homes sold - not because buyers suddenly discounted value across the board.

In the outer East Bay, median pricing landed around $1.7M, up just over 2%. Lafayette and Danville saw meaningful gains, Walnut Creek remained remarkably stable, and Moraga and Pleasant Hill softened modestly. The pattern was consistent: buyers paid up for turnkey homes and paused when condition or pricing introduced friction.

Competition Didn’t Disappear, It Just Narrowed

The idea that competition vanished in 2025 doesn’t hold up to the data or the experience on the ground.

In the inner East Bay, homes still sold at an average of 104% of list price. In places like Albany, Kensington, and Berkeley, multiple offers remained common when homes were priced with intention. Oakland stayed closer to list, but even there, well-prepared properties continued to attract attention.

The outer East Bay told a calmer story. Homes averaged about 98% of list, with most transactions clustering near asking price. Buyers had more room to negotiate, and sellers who anchored to last year’s expectations often had to adjust.

Why the Market Stayed Active

Several forces quietly supported the market in 2025. Inventory finally grew, giving buyers choices and reducing some of the pressure that defined earlier years. Job losses in tech and professional services appeared to have stabilized by year-end, while education and health services added jobs steadily. Outmigration slowed, and slightly lower mortgage rates in the second half of the year created just enough breathing room to keep buyers engaged.

This wasn’t a market fueled by urgency. It was fueled by readiness.

What 2025 Made Clear

The East Bay didn’t reset in 2025, it recalibrated.

• Buyers became more discerning, not absent

• Sellers gained feedback faster and adjusted sooner

• Pricing mattered, preparation mattered more

• And the gap widened between homes that felt easy to say yes to - and those that didn’t

Heading into 2026, the East Bay market feels steadier than it did a year ago. Not faster, not looser, just clearer. Buyers know what they’re willing to pay, sellers are reading the room more accurately, and transactions are happening with fewer surprises. It’s a market that’s still moving, but doing so with more intention.

Behind every data point is a decision that matters to someone’s life. Rick and I bring this level of market analysis to every transaction, but we pair it with something just as important: patience, responsiveness, and an understanding of the human side of the process. In a market that’s active but nuanced, our focus is on helping clients feel informed, supported, and well cared for as they move forward.

-Alex